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Showing posts with label US debts default. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US debts default. Show all posts

Monday, October 21, 2013

Erosion of confidence: US avoided a debt default, debt ceiling shifted to next year

It happened again last week – at the last minute the United States avoided debt default. But the world is losing patience with this latest episode of dysfunctional leadership.




THE world waited with bated breath as the deadline neared. And breathed a sigh of relief when at the last minute, the United States avoided crossing its “debt ceiling” and a default on its debts.

The debt ceiling was raised, and the government shutdown also ended last Thursday after weeks of a high-profile standoff between US President Barrack Obama and the Republicans in Congress.

But this relief was mixed with incredulity and frustration.

First, the respite is only temporary; the can is just kicked down the road.

The deadlines for government shutdown and debt ceiling are shifted some weeks away to January and February next year.

Second, this fiasco has happened several times already.

Each time the Congress gave the President a reprieve of just a few more months, before the new deadline loomed again.

The Republicans are adamant to cut the government’s spending and its budget deficit and won’t allow the government to function unless they get what they want.

Previously, Obama compromised and gave in significantly.This time, he stood firm and refused to negotiate.

The Republicans went too far, choosing to defund and damage his landmark medical insurance reform as a condition for lifting the debt ceiling.

Obama decided “enough is enough” and relied on public opinion to win his gamble. The Republican Party blinked, as the public heaped the blame on them.

The party leaders in Congress had to eat humble pie and agree to stop the shutdown and lift the debt ceiling without defunding or changing the “Obamacare” health reform.

But thirdly, while the President finally showed the Republicans who was boss, the damage had already been done to the United States’ image as a superpower and the champion of American-style democracy.

The US system of governance has become dysfunctional, with one side of the political divide willing and able to paralyse the government functions led by the other side, using the weapon of withholding approval of the government’s budget and capacity to borrow.

Just days before the deadline, the world’s finance ministers meeting at the annual IMF-World Bank meeting in Washington highlighted the extreme dangers of a US debt default.

Around the world, leaders and analysts mourned the end of the past certainties surrounding the United States and its dollar as the world’s financial leader.

A widely-quoted article in China’s Xinhua news agency was titled: “Washington’s political chaos proves it’s time for a de-Americanised world.”

The commentator, Liu Chang, said the latest crisis reveals that the United States is unfit to govern itself, let alone lord it over the rest of us.

“It is perhaps a good time for the befuddled world to start considering building a de-Americanised world.”

After castigating the United States for meddling in the political affairs of countries in its efforts in building a world empire, the writer attacks a self-serving Washington for shifting financial risks overseas, while the debt ceiling crisis “has again left many nations’ tremendous dollar assets in jeopardy and the international community highly agonised”.

“Such alarming days when the destinies of others are in the hands of a hypocritical nation have to be terminated, and a new world order should be put in place, according to which all nations, big or small, poor or rich, can have their key interests respected and protected on an equal footing.

“Part of that reform is the introduction of a new international reserve currency that is to be created to replace the dominant US dollar, so that the international community could permanently stay away from the spillover of the intensifying domestic political turmoil in the United States.”

As the Xinhua opinion piece indicated, many countries are concerned about the US dollar being the world’s dominant currency. It is by far the most important reserve currency.

Countries holding US dollar treasury bills have been worried about the once unthinkable, that the US would be unable to honour its debt service obligations, thus putting their hard-earned assets in jeopardy.

On the other hand, countries that took loans denominated in US dollars could face punishing terms of repayment if the interest rate on the US dollar shoots up upon fears of a US debt default.

Companies, traders and governments that use the US dollar as the medium of exchange would also suffer from chaos in the markets for money, commodities and trade, if there is a massive loss of confidence in the US and its dollar.

Thus, continuing uncertainty arising from feuds in Washington will accelerate the erosion of confidence in the US as world economic leader.

The Financial Times columinist Martin Wolf commented that the US debt ceiling is the legislative equivalent of a nuclear bomb, and that the law needs to be repealed since there cannot be orderly government under so destructive a threat.

But another editorial comment in The Independent states that while there is a straightforward case to ditch the debt ceiling law, the same extremists who use it as a weapon of mass destruction will be loath to part with it.

In the past few days, some Democrat and Republican leaders in charge of budget policy in Congress have started meeting, giving hope they plan to avoid a repeat of the fiasco when the budget and debt ceiling deadlines re-appear in a few months.

But given the polarisation and ideological divides in Washington, chances are that the world will be treated to another round of the battle and the chaos. If that happens, there will be more calls for a new world order.

Contributed by Global Trends by Martin Khor
> The views expressed are entirely the writer’s own.

Related posts:
1. A de-Americanized world needed !  
2. Winds of change blowing in Asia 

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

A de-Americanized world needed !

SHUTDOWN. A view of a hall on Capitol Hill September 29, 2013 in Washington, DC. AFP/Brendan Smialowski

As U.S. politicians of both political parties are still shuffling back and forth between the White House and the Capitol Hill without striking a viable deal to bring normality to the body politic they brag about, it is perhaps a good time for the befuddled world to start considering building a de-Americanized world.

Emerging from the bloodshed of the Second World War as the world's most powerful nation, the United States has since then been trying to build a global empire by imposing a postwar world order, fueling recovery in Europe, and encouraging regime-change in nations that it deems hardly Washington-friendly.

With its seemingly unrivaled economic and military might, the United States has declared that it has vital national interests to protect in nearly every corner of the globe, and been habituated to meddling in the business of other countries and regions far away from its shores.

Meanwhile, the U.S. government has gone to all lengths to appear before the world as the one that claims the moral high ground, yet covertly doing things that are as audacious as torturing prisoners of war, slaying civilians in drone attacks, and spying on world leaders.

Under what is known as the Pax-Americana, we fail to see a world where the United States is helping to defuse violence and conflicts, reduce poor and displaced population, and bring about real, lasting peace.

Moreover, instead of honoring its duties as a responsible leading power, a self-serving Washington has abused its superpower status and introduced even more chaos into the world by shifting financial risks overseas, instigating regional tensions amid territorial disputes, and fighting unwarranted wars under the cover of outright lies.

As a result, the world is still crawling its way out of an economic disaster thanks to the voracious Wall Street elites, while bombings and killings have become virtually daily routines in Iraq years after Washington claimed it has liberated its people from tyrannical rule.

Most recently, the cyclical stagnation in Washington for a viable bipartisan solution over a federal budget and an approval for raising debt ceiling has again left many nations' tremendous dollar assets in jeopardy and the international community highly agonized.

Such alarming days when the destinies of others are in the hands of a hypocritical nation have to be terminated, and a new world order should be put in place, according to which all nations, big or small, poor or rich, can have their key interests respected and protected on an equal footing.

To that end, several corner stones should be laid to underpin a de-Americanized world.

For starters, all nations need to hew to the basic principles of the international law, including respect for sovereignty, and keeping hands off domestic affairs of others.

Furthermore, the authority of the United Nations in handling global hotspot issues has to be recognized. That means no one has the right to wage any form of military action against others without a UN mandate.

Apart from that, the world's financial system also has to embrace some substantial reforms.

The developing and emerging market economies need to have more say in major international financial institutions including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, so that they could better reflect the transformations of the global economic and political landscape.

What may also be included as a key part of an effective reform is the introduction of a new international reserve currency that is to be created to replace the dominant U.S. dollar, so that the international community could permanently stay away from the spillover of the intensifying domestic political turmoil in the United States.

Of course, the purpose of promoting these changes is not to completely toss the United States aside, which is also impossible. Rather, it is to encourage Washington to play a much more constructive role in addressing global affairs.

And among all options, it is suggested that the beltway politicians first begin with ending the pernicious impasse.

- By Xinhua Commentary writer Liu Chang 2013-10-13

Related posts:
Related News:
 

'De-Americanised' world needed after US shutdown - New Straits Times

World Bank chief urges U.S. to break fiscal impasse

Obama meets Democratic senators to find fiscal deal

U.S. fiscal crisis: House explains why Republicans unwilling to pass budget bill

Obama reaches out to Republicans on ending fiscal logjam

U.S. fiscal policy uncertainties affect global economy: World Bank official

Thursday, September 1, 2011

Can The U.S. Super Committee Solve The Debt Crisis?






America’s relentlessly-escalating national debt seems like a problem that defies resolution. Congress and the Obama administration couldn’t solve it recently when they agreed to raise the U.S. debt ceiling by another $2.1 trillion.

5 Ways The United States Can Get Out Of Debt
see photosAFP/Getty ImagesClick for full photo gallery: 5 Ways The United States Can Get Out Of Debt

Instead of agreeing on measures to reduce the country’s staggering debt, Congress and the president handed off the problem to a so-called Super Committee. The 12-member, bipartisan committee of national legislators, with an equal number of Democrats and Republicans, will study U.S. finances and recommend $1.2 trillion in budget cuts by November 23. (Read more: “Can The U.S. Regain Its AAA Rating?“)

Reaching an Agreement If the committee reaches an agreement on budget cut proposals, Congress must vote approval on them by December 23. If Congress votes on them accordingly, the $1.2 trillion in cuts will go into effect. As usual, however, the issues will be what gets cut and by how much.

There are many items on the committee’s agenda for discussion, including: raising taxes, revamping the tax code, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, healthcare for the elderly and the federal retirement program; these are all major issues that have been long debated in Congress.

Also up for debate and possible reduction is the 35% U.S. corporate tax rate. Many Democrats and Republicans agree that the rate is too high relative to rates imposed in other countries. Democrats, however, have proposed plugging tax loopholes as a means of making up the difference in revenue if the corporate rate is lowered.

So the committee may have a difficult time finding ideas that everyone – including their constituents – can agree on. For example, another particularly controversial tax deduction that some legislators proposed eliminating is the home mortgage interest exemption. A USA Today/Gallup poll conducted this spring asked survey participants if they would approve eliminating that deduction if overall tax rates were also lowered. Sixty-one percent opposed the idea.



What if an Agreement Can’t be reached? In the event that the committee fails to reach an agreement, $1.2 trillion in budget cuts will be automatically imposed in equal amounts on domestic and defense spending.

With committee members divided equally along opposing political lines, many observers believe a stalemate is inevitable.

The 12 appointed members are:
  • Rep. Jeb Hensarling of Texas (Republican and committee co-chair):  Chairman of the House Republican Conference.   
  • Sen. Patty Murray of Washington (Democrat and committee co-chair):  She is a member of the Budget and Appropriations committees.
  • Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland (Democrat): Van Hollen is the ranking Democrat on the Budget Committee.
  • Sen. Jon Kyl of Arizona (Republican): The number two ranking Republican in the Senate behind Mitch McConnell and a member of the Finance Committee.
  • Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts (Democrat): A former presidential candidate in 2004 against incumbent George W. Bush, he is a member of the Finance Committee.  
  • Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania (Republican): Elected to the Senate last year. Member of  the Senate Budget and Banking committees.
  • Sen. Max Baucus of Montana (Democrat): Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee.  Also served on Obama’s debt commission.
  • Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio (Republican): Former White House budget director in the Bush administration, and a member of Budget Committee.
  • Rep. Xavier Becerra of California (Democrat): A senior member of the House Ways and Means Committee
  • Rep. Dave Camp of Michigan (Republican): Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee.   
  • Rep. James Clyburn of South Carolina (Democrat): The third-ranking Democrat in the House and a member of the Appropriations Committee.
  • Rep. Fred Upton of Michigan (Republican): Chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee.  
Committee members reportedly will draw upon previously proposed solutions from Republican and Democratic legislators, independent groups, Obama’s 2010 bipartisan deficit commission, among others, as a basis for discussion.

The American public, eager for solutions and an end to partisan bickering, have nevertheless been warned by analysts and former policy makers not to expect too much from the committee.

Reaching an Agreement If the committee reaches agreement, as a political and practical matter, the suggestions are expected to be narrow in focus and likely to win Congressional approval, while the still nagging major issues will remain: long term taxes and entitlements.

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Saturday, August 13, 2011

Simple way to understand US Economic Situation










Simple way to understand US Economic Situation:

Federal Budget 101 Letter - LA



Thursday, June 9, 2011

US dollar died, debt default is unimaginable, "playing with fire", creditors say


The Day the Dollar Died 



UD debt default is unimaginable  The National Debt Clock next to an IRS office near Times Square, May 16, 2011. REUTERS/Chip EastBy Emily Kaiser  SINGAPORE, Agencies

SINGAPORE - Allowing a brief US debt default to force government spending cuts is a "horrible idea" that could destabilize the world economy and sour already tense relations with big creditors, government officials and investors said on Wednesday.

A growing number of US Republican lawmakers think a technical debt default might be a price worth paying if it gets the White House to accept deep spending cuts. This idea, once confined to the party's fringe, is seeping into the mainstream, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

"How can the US be allowed to default?" said an official at India's central bank. "We don't think this is a possibility because this could then create huge panic globally.

Indian officials say they have little choice but to buy US Treasury debt because it is still among the world's safest and most liquid investments. It held $39.8 billion in US Treasuries as of March, according to US data.

The US Congress has balked at increasing a statutory limit on government spending as lawmakers argue over how to curb a deficit which is projected to reach $1.4 trillion this fiscal year. The US Treasury Department has said it will run out of borrowing room by August 2.

If Washington cannot make interest payments on its debt, the Obama administration has warned of "catastrophic" consequences that could push the still-fragile economy back into recession.

"It has dire implications for the economy at a time when the macro data is softening," said Ben Westmore, a commodities economist at National Australia Bank.

"It's just a horrible idea," he said.

The Republicans' theory is that bondholders would accept a brief delay in interest payments -- maybe a couple of days -- if it meant Washington finally addressed its long-term fiscal problems, putting the country in a stronger position to meet its debt obligations later on.

But interviews with government officials and investors show they consider a default such a grim -- and remote -- possibility that it was nearly impossible to imagine.

"It just wouldn't happen," said Barry Evans, who oversees $83 billion in fixed income assets at Manulife Asset Management. "They would pay their Treasury bills first instead of other bills. It's as simple as that.

As for China, Washington's largest foreign creditor with $1.14 trillion in Treasuries as of March, a default could fray political and economic ties.

Yuan Gangming, a researcher with the government think tank Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, smelled some political wrangling behind the US debt debate as the 2012 presidential election draws nearer and said Republicans "want to make things difficult for Obama.

But with time running short before Treasury exhausts its borrowing room, Yuan said default was a real risk.

"The possibility is quite high to see a default of the US debt, which would harm many countries in the world, and China in particular," he said.



China warns U.S. debt-default idea is "playing with fire"

Emily Kaiser

(Reuters) - Republican lawmakers are "playing with fire" by contemplating even a brief debt default as a means to force deeper government spending cuts, an adviser to China's central bank said on Wednesday.

The idea of a technical default -- essentially delaying interest payments for a few days -- has gained backing from a growing number of mainstream Republicans who see it as a price worth paying if it forces the White House to slash spending, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

But any form of default could destabilize the global economy and sour already tense relations with big U.S. creditors such as China, government officials and investors warn.

Li Daokui, an adviser to the People's Bank of China, said a default could undermine the U.S. dollar, and Beijing needed to dissuade Washington from pursuing this course of action.

"I think there is a risk that the U.S. debt default may happen," Li told reporters on the sidelines of a forum in Beijing. "The result will be very serious and I really hope that they would stop playing with fire."

China is the largest foreign creditor to the United States, holding more than $1 trillion in Treasury debt as of March, U.S. data shows, so its concerns carry considerable weight in Washington.

I really worry about the risks of a U.S. debt default, which I think may lead to a decline in the dollar's value," Li said.

Congress has balked at increasing a statutory limit on government spending as lawmakers argue over how to curb a deficit which is projected to reach $1.4 trillion this fiscal year. The U.S. Treasury Department has said it will run out of borrowing room by August 2.

If the United States cannot make interest payments on its debt, the Obama administration has warned of "catastrophic" consequences that could push the still-fragile economy back into recession.

It has dire implications for the economy at a time when the macro data is softening," said Ben Westmore, a commodities economist at National Australia Bank.

"It's just a horrible idea," he said.

Financial markets are following the U.S. debate but see little risk of a default.

U.S. Treasury prices were firm in Europe on Wednesday, supported by a flight to their perceived safety on the back of the Greek debt crisis and worries about a slowdown in U.S. economic growth.

Marc Ostwald, a strategist with Monument Securities in London, said markets were working on the assumption that the U.S. debt story "will go away." But nervousness would grow if a resolution was not reached in the next five to six weeks.

'WOULDN'T HAPPEN'

The Republicans' theory is that bondholders would accept a brief delay in interest payments if it meant Washington finally addressed its long-term fiscal problems, putting the country in a stronger position to meet its debt obligations later on.

But interviews with government officials and investors show they consider a default such a grim -- and remote -- possibility that it was nearly impossible to imagine.

"How can the U.S. be allowed to default?" said an official at India's central bank. "We don't think this is a possibility because this could then create huge panic globally."

Indian officials say they have little choice but to buy U.S. Treasury debt because it is still among the world's safest and most liquid investments. It held $39.8 billion in U.S. Treasuries as of March, U.S. data shows.

The officials declined to be identified because they are not authorized to speak to the media.

Oman is concerned about the impact of a default on the currency reserves of the sultanate and its Gulf neighbors.

"Our economies are substantially tied up with the U.S. financial developments," said a senior central bank official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

"It just wouldn't happen," said Barry Evans, who oversees $83 billion in fixed income assets at Manulife Asset Management. "They would pay their Treasury bills first instead of other bills. It's as simple as that."

Monument's Ostwald called the default scenario "frightening" and said bondholders' patience would wear thin if lawmakers persisted in pitching this strategy in the coming weeks.

"This isn't a debate, this is like a Mexican standoff and that is where the problem lies," he said.

Yuan Gangming, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank, smelled some political wrangling behind the U.S. debt debate as the 2012 presidential election draws nearer and said Republicans "want to make things difficult for Obama."

But with time running short before the U.S. Treasury exhausts its borrowing room, Yuan said default was a real risk.

"The possibility is quite high to see a default of the U.S. debt, which would harm many countries in the world, and China in particular," he said.

(Reporting by Kevin Lim and Jong Woo Cheon in Singapore, Suvashree Dey Choudhury in Mumbai, Aileen Wang and Kevin Yao in Beijing, Abhijit Neogy in Delhi, Marius Zaharia in London and Umesh Desai in Hong Kong; Editing by Dean Yates and Neil Fullick)



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