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Showing posts with label Politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Politics. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 12, 2024

Why West misreads new development paradigm

 

A view of Beijing's CBD area. [Photo/VCG] - China Daily/ANN

IN all ancient civilisations, especially in Asia, material and socio-cultural-spiritual development progressed more or less hand-in-hand. Hence, there was generally balanced human progress, even though all the civilisations had their share of shortcomings.

A major disruption occurred with the Industrial Revolution in the late 18th and 19th centuries. Spurred by new productive forces, the Industrial Revolution facilitated epoch-changing discoveries in science and innovations in technology, which exponentially raised many European nations’ capability to generate material prosperity.

As a result, European countries became fabulously wealthy.

However, the European countries used, rather misused, the new productive forces to consolidate their hold on their colonies in Asia, Africa and Latin America. They ruthlessly exploited and pillaged the colonies’ resources, seeking to destroy native cultures and establish European civilisational superiority.

Their fierce internal rivalry, though, led to two horrific world wars, which claimed millions of lives and ruined the economies of both the victims and perpetrators.

Hence, Western nations, despite their superior material wealth, became culturally, morally and spiritually impoverished. Even the birth of the United States was an outcome of the sordid history of colonisation. European powers literally mass-annihilated almost all the Indigenous peoples in the Americas in their lust for land and riches.

The United States, in the last century, contributed to the further explosive growth of productive forces with revolutionary advances in science and technology, especially in computers and the Internet, heralding the “information age”.

Nevertheless, these productive forces, being at the service of an uncontrolled capitalist system, have been misused leading to the extreme concentration of wealth and power in the hands of a minority.

Moreover, US administrations have abjured neither the Western instinct for global domination nor the habit of using their country’s powerful productive forces to launch illegitimate wars.

The importance of the rise of “new quality productive forces” in China needs to be understood against this historical background. Many in the West have dismissed it as just another “buzzword” meant to divert the international community’s attention away from China’s economic slowdown.

However, the concept can be properly understood only in the context of the Chinese leadership’s goal of developing “China into a great modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious and beautiful”.

Seen from this perspective, the new quality productive forces, wedded to people-centric and planet-protective development, could be the harbinger of a significantly different kind of, and balanced, human development.

The rise of new quality productive forces in China will have both domestic and global impacts. It is accompanied by, and is contributing to, positive changes in the West-dominated world order.

For the first time in modern history, China is surging ahead of Europe and the United States in scientific research and innovations in technology, especially in deploying new technologies and innovations.

China’s new quality productive forces are primarily in the areas of new energy, new materials, new hi-tech manufacturing systems and new applications of artificial intelligence.

In terms of the production and use of solar photovoltaic panels and other clean and green energy products, China is far ahead of the rest of the world. In fact, China installed more solar panels in 2023 than the United States has ever built, setting new standards in low-carbon footprints.

Besides, there are more industrial robots in Chinese factories than in any other country. In space and ocean research, too, China is advancing at a pace faster than the West. For instance, it is developing the world’s first quantum communications satellite network. China now ranks No. 1 in science and technology innovation clusters in the world.

While China is making rapid strides in developing its strategic industries, its agriculture and traditional industries are also becoming smarter and more innovative. As a result of the huge innovation-led increases in productivity, quality and efficiency, the Chinese economy is sure to navigate its current challenges satisfactorily.

However, China’s new development paradigm differs from that of the West in the past in one crucial respect: Chinese leaders have time and again emphasised that China will never seek hegemony irrespective of how prosperous it becomes. China is not trying to replace the West in global domination. Instead, it aims to help improve the world order by making it equitable, fairer, more representative and more democratic.

Five features set apart China’s new quality productive forces from the Western template.

First, China has not become the world’s second-largest economy by colonising any other country or by exploiting or stealing other countries’ resources. On the contrary, it has made much of the self-reliant technological advances despite the unlawful sanctions imposed by the United States and other Western countries.

Second, China has not misused its technological prowess by waging deadly wars against far-off countries. As a matter of fact, it advocates resolving disputes through dialogue.

Third, China aims to use the scientific and technological breakthroughs primarily for boosting all-round development so its vast population can lead a high-quality life and the country can achieve common prosperity. It has already lifted about 800 million people out of extreme poverty within a short span of four decades – a feat unparalleled in history.

The fact that the common people are living much better lives, as I have seen during my travels across the country, shows China is committed to using its resources to enrich its human capital, an obligation many Western governments have nearly abandoned.

Fourth, China is sharing its development experiences with other countries so they can learn from them and apply them, if necessary, to boost their development. As a matter of fact, the Belt and Road Initiative shows China is committed to helping build a community with a shared future for mankind.

And fifth, in its 5,000-year history, China has achieved great feats in arts, culture and science and technology, while seeking harmony in society – and in the world at large – although it has suffered many setbacks and foreign aggressions.

Now that China has become a moderately prosperous society in all respects, it views its development propelled by new quality productive forces as a contributor to the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and a driving force behind the creation of a better world order.

Most Western observers fail to understand this civilisational wisdom guiding China’s modernisation. — China Daily/ANN

By Sudheendra Kulkarni,  an advocate of India-China-Pakistan cooperation for a New South Asia and was an aide to former Indian prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The views expressed are the writer’s own.

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Sunday, March 10, 2024

Overlooking principles

 


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Friday, February 23, 2024

What does Blinken's 'table and menu theory' signify?

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken takes part in a panel discussion at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Munich, southern Germany on February 17, 2024. Photo: VCG

Recently, during his participation in the Munich Security Conference (MSC), US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a statement that offers significant room for interpretation and is worthy of in-depth analysis. When responding to a moderator's question concerning that "the US-China tensions are leading to greater fragmentation," he used an American slang phrase, stating that "if you're not at the table in the international system, you're going to be on the menu." Translated into Chinese, the meaning is akin to "if you're not the knife and the chopping board, you'll be the fish and meat on the board." As the chief diplomat of a superpower, Blinken's use of this phrase reveals a worldview characterized by a harsh and chilling perspective of a world where the strong prey on the weak.

This is not the first time Blinken has made such remarks. On January 24, 2022, during a forum, Blinken used this same phrase to elucidate the China-US relationship, emphasizing that in competition with China, they should make sure that the US is "at the table," but not on the menu. Going back further, this phrase appeared in a 1993 article in an American Middle East affairs journal, describing the situation in Lebanon at that time.

Subsequently, individuals of different backgrounds used it in various contexts. However, Washington politicians gradually found that it "vividly and accurately" encapsulates the US worldview and foreign strategy, making it resonate with their beliefs. Hence, Blinken reiterated the remarks.

The phrase "if you're not at the table, you'll probably be on the menu" is extremely straightforward, even blunt, representing a stark zero-sum game mentality. In plain language, if you have the strength, you devour others at the table; if you lack strength, you become the prey on the menu. It adheres completely to a jungle law where power and status, not ethical or legal norms, dictate actions.

Over 200 years ago, the massacre and land usurpation against the indigenous peoples living in North America were manifestations of this mind-set. World War I instigated by old European empires and, to some extent, the Cold War can also be seen as examples. However, with the progress of political civilization and the development of economic globalization, this mind-set and approach are increasingly unpopular.

In fact, even within the US, the use of this slang phrase is filled with criticism and reflection, because it implies that when privileges that can be enjoyed at the table appear, it is usually at the expense of sacrificing others. The corresponding Chinese phrase "if you're not at the table, you'll probably be on the menu" is even more filled with the humiliation of being at the mercy of others. Strictly speaking, Blinken, as the chief diplomat of the US and a professional diplomat, speaking such words can be considered a slip of the tongue and a loss of composure. However, his repeated blunt remarks in international public forums also indicate the unapologetic hegemonic thinking of current American diplomacy.

Washington's current official diplomatic rhetoric emphasizes the so-called "rules-based international order," but it is all used as tools to demand, restrain, and accuse others, or to cover up US own hegemonic intentions. Blinken's "table and menu" remarks indicate that the underlying logic that Washington truly believes in and follows in its foreign strategy has not fundamentally changed. He may also be intended to create a sensationalistic effect of intimidation. In the US Congress, there is a mobilization of public opinion on the strategy of containment against China, while internationally, the US is coercing other countries to take sides between it and China, or else they will end up on the menu.

Former US president Woodrow Wilson once said "the small states of the world have a right to enjoy the same respect for their sovereignty and for their territorial integrity that great and powerful nations expect and insist upon." The principle of sovereign equality of states established by the Westphalian system has long been one of the fundamental principles of international relations and international law. All countries, especially small ones, have a higher awareness and insistence on sovereign equality. However, centuries later, the chief diplomat of the US seems more convinced of power politics, and unashamedly uses the privilege of "sitting at the table with a Western knife and fork to prey on others" to pressure and entice other countries. It must be said that this is also the tragedy of American diplomacy.

Today's world is not a private restaurant monopolized and controlled by individual superpowers, but a broad stage where all countries should share prosperity, bear responsibilities, and compete fairly. The vast majority of countries in the international community share the common desire for peace over war, justice over hegemony, and cooperation over confrontation. No country is destined to become the fish on the menu. Going against this historical trend is bound to be criticized and opposed by the international community.

 
 
 
 

Thursday, February 15, 2024

Is the future in America or China?



 

Oh my! What a “leading question”. I’ll bet all the trolls came out on this one, eh?

Let’s try to answer this question REASONABLY.

[Basic point herein]

A “future” is a personal perspective. A Summer with a lot of rain will make the farmer happy, but will really upset the football player.

No one can really answer that question for you.

You have to take your personal perspective, and then frame how you live your life relative to your projected needs and desires.

[What the future looks like]

Both China and the United States will exist in the future. Even if there is a catastrophic war, both will continue to exist simply due to their enormous size.

But both nations are on different trajectories based upon their structure, their leadership and the composition of their individual societies.

[The United States]

We can expect that (barring significant course corrections) the United States will evolve and develop in the following directions…

Greater freedoms and even privileges for LGBT+ individuals.

Higher inflation rates.

Substantial changes in the use of the USD and banking systems.

Changes in the structure of urban life, and alterations to rural life.

Continued stratification of society resulting in zero middle class and great disparity.

Continued balkanization of general society creating enclaves of closed communities.

[China]

Increased growth of the middle class.

An expansion of public spaces, and utility access.

Continued technological advancements.

Continued expansion of the manufacturing base.

An integration of global society resulting in a “melting pot” of respected cultures.

Breakthroughs at all levels to include electronics, AI, technology, and space exploration.

[Conclusion]

I envision that the United States will continue to be the nation of choice for the wealthy, stockbrokers, finance, banking, and related professions. Such as attorneys, accountants, and tech specialists. I can also see possibilities for real estate speculators, and opportunities in the social and medical fields.

I see great opportunities in China, for technical specialists, family businesses, craftsmen, workers of all types, factory and manufacturing experts, and people involved in the sciences.

As I see it, the bifurcated evolution of the world will offer great opportunities for the self-directed individual no matter what your background, or interests lie. the future looks great. Don’t get caught up in the neocon fantasies and doom and gloom of the selfish. The future is quite bright.

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Monday, December 25, 2023

How Malaysia is finding its way out of the middle-income trap

It has taken the slow but steady route while addressing an ethnic incongruity


. Kuala Lumpur's new landmark, Merdeka 118, is a symbol of the country's growing affluence. (Nikkei montage/Source photos by Hiroki Endo and Reuters) 

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim vows to focus on achieving faster growth.

KUALA LUMPUR -- Asia's megacities often undergo surprising metamorphoses in short amounts of time. Kuala Lumpur is one such example. When I visited the city in late October, I was amazed at how much it had modernized since I visited nine years ago.

Urban rail lines now crisscross the city, with new shopping malls sprouting everywhere. Particularly eye-catching was Merdeka 118, a 118-story skyscraper completed earlier this year. The 678-meter tower -- the world's second-tallest after the Burj Khalifa in Dubai -- is a symbol of the country's growing affluence. Its spire was designed to evoke the image of Tunku Abdul Rahman, Malaysia's first prime minister, raising his hand as he proclaimed national independence in 1957.

Malaysia over the past few years has experienced a rapid turnover of prime ministers, though the political situation seems to have stabilized. On Dec. 5, about a year after the launch of his government, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim stressed his intention to push for faster economic growth. "It's time to focus on developing the economy," he said in an interview with a local broadcaster.

Anwar's government in July unveiled its 10-year Madani Economy plan and the National Energy Transition Roadmap. These were followed in September by the midterm review of the 12th Malaysia Plan and the New Industrial Master Plan 2030. In October, Anwar's government launched its Hydrogen Economy and Technology Roadmap.

"It is not clear how these relate to one another," a Japanese businessperson said. Still, it seems clear that the government's main goal is to achieve annual growth of over 5.5%, a target specified in the Madani plan.

A view of Kuala Lumpur's skyline. Given Malaysia's relatively young population, domestic demand is expected to keep expanding. © Reuters 

Malaysia's gross domestic product grew 8.7% last year, the highest in 22 years, and growth for this year is estimated at 4%, despite the global slowdown. Given its relatively young population, domestic demand is expected to further expand. The country's semiconductor and other sectors are also attracting foreign direct investment as alternative supply chain bases amid mounting U.S.-China tensions.

The country's per capita gross national income was $11,780 in 2022. If the economy grows 5.5% per year and there is no sharp depreciation of the ringgit against the dollar, it could shed its middle-income status, as defined by the World Bank, in two or three years, joining the ranks of high-income nations.

Graduation has been a long time coming.

Malaysia became an upper-middle-income country in 1996, according to a working paper that Jesus Felipe, a professor at De La Salle University in the Philippines, wrote in 2012, when he was with the Asian Development Bank. Felipe reasons that upper-middle-income nations become ensnared in the middle-income trap if they are unable to move up for more than 15 years. Once trapped, countries suffer stagnant growth, sandwiched between technologically advanced developed nations and developing countries abundant in cheap labor. The description fits Malaysia's situation.

To see why Malaysia could not extricate itself from the trap for so long, one needs to look at its history.

Twelve years after the country gained its independence in 1957, a racial riot engulfed the capital. Malays accounted for nearly 70% of the population, but ethnic Chinese, who made up less than 30%, controlled the economy. The strain of this incongruity led to the clash, resulting in about 200 deaths.

To prevent a recurrence of the tragedy, the government began to address the economic disparity and in 1971 adopted a policy called Bumiputera (sons of the soil) -- a type of affirmative action for ethnic Malays. The policy treats Malays favorably in all aspects of life, including school admissions, employment and even stockholding.

The country's ethnic Chinese are traditionally considered to be strong in commerce and industrial activities. "If we recruit people by ability alone, many could be Chinese," an executive at a Japanese company said.

By trying to fix the racial imbalance artificially, Bumiputera is often cited as a source of inefficiency, but it has its merits.

"If the government had not provided elementary and secondary education to Malay villagers and helped them migrate to cities and find jobs in the commercial and industrial sectors, the country would have suffered a serious labor shortage in the early stage of economic development," said Satoru Kumagai, director of the economic geography studies group at the Institute of Developing Economies of the Japan External Trade Organization. It can be said that Bumiputera's goal is to strike an optimal balance between distribution and growth.

A shopping mall in Kuala Lumpur. Malaysia's Bumiputera policy has helped educate young Malay villagers and bring them to cities hungry for workers. (Photo by Toru Takahashi)

Mahathir Mohamad, who in 1981 became Malaysia's fourth prime minister, shifted the national focus to growth by adopting the Look East policy, which sought to emulate Japan's economic success. The country also began to actively attract more foreign capital. In 1991, Mahathir launched Vision 2020, the goal of which was to become a high-income country in 30 years.

"His greatest achievement was to set a goal of becoming a high-income country," said Abdul Razak Ahmad, founding director of Bait Al Amanah, a private think tank. He "thus changed the people's mindset, encouraging them to have a can-do attitude."

Malaysia enjoyed annual growth of nearly 10% for 10 years before the Asian financial crisis hit it hard in 1997. Afterward, its growth slowed to around 5% to 6%. Anwar, then the deputy prime minister and finance minister, clashed with Mahathir over how to cope with the crisis and was dismissed.

When Anwar this year announced the Madani plan, he said the country had been "caught in a vicious cycle of high costs, low wages, low profits and a lack of competitiveness" since the 1997 crisis. Anwar clearly sees the plan as a roadmap to push the country into the high-income category during his tenure -- something his old enemy could not achieve.

The reason for Malaysia's inability to pull itself out of the middle-income trap becomes clear when looking at the economic development of Taiwan and South Korea.

In terms of population, Taiwan and South Korea are not much different from Malaysia. Taiwan is home to 23 million, South Korea to 51 million and Malaysia to 33 million.

In 1981, when Mahathir became prime minister, the three were not far apart in per capita GDP. Taiwan's was at $2,691, South Korea's at $1,883 and Malaysia's at $1,920.

Taiwan became an upper-middle-income economy in 1986, followed by South Korea two years later, according to Felipe. Taiwan stepped up to high-income status in 1993, with South Korea following in 1995. It took just seven years for the two to move from upper-middle-income to high-income status.



Unlike Malaysia, they did not fall into the trap. Last year, Malaysia's per capita GDP was $12,465, far below Taiwan's $32,687 and South Korea's $32,418. Several factors were at play here.

First, Taiwan and South Korea do not have complex ethnic problems that cause them to pursue difficult socioeconomic policies. Second, the two had no choice but to industrialize as they are not blessed with natural resources like Malaysia, which is rich in petroleum, natural gas and palm oil.

Third, democratization in Taiwan and South Korea began shortly before the end of the Cold War in 1989, allowing them to catch the waves of globalization and information technology. Taiwan democratized in 1986 and South Korea in 1987.

Malaysia has held democratic elections since it gained independence, but the country was under a "developmental dictatorship" that prioritized economic development while restricting political freedom. Malaysians had to wait until 2018 for their government to hand power to another party for the first time.

Fourth, internationally competitive businesses like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Hyundai Motor and Samsung Electronics have driven growth in Taiwan and South Korea. Malaysia, meanwhile, has failed to nurture such companies with an economy that instead has been led by government-affiliated entities. Its automobile, electrical and electronics industries have depended on foreign businesses.

Grab Holdings, whose ride-hailing superapp is now ubiquitous across Southeast Asia, was founded in Malaysia but quickly relocated its head office to Singapore to facilitate fund-raising and other benefits.

On the whole, Malaysia's lack of economic dynamism was to blame for its lower growth curve.

Still, it should be noted that Malaysia has avoided the so-called resource trap, in which the presence of abundant resources holds back a country's industrialization. Malaysia's leading exports are electrical and electronic products, which account for 40% of its total exports. It tops the U.S. and Japan in terms of exports of semiconductor-related products by value.

A worker inspects chips at Unisem's semiconductor packaging plant in Ipoh, Malaysia, in October 2021. It is becoming imperative for Malaysia to boost investments in higher value-added upstream industries. © Reuters 

This trap can be seen in Saudi Arabia, which in 2016 drafted its Vision 2030 strategy to reduce its dependence on natural resources. Malaysia achieved 40 years ago the industrialization Saudi Arabia is now pursuing.

Said Kumagai: "Malaysia is different from East Asia's elite economies like Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, and from countries with unique strengths such as Singapore, Hong Kong and oil-producing Gulf states. If it achieves high-income status, it will be the first 'normal' country to do so."

Still, challenges abound. In chip manufacturing, Vietnam and India are catching up fast, making it imperative for Malaysia to boost investments in higher value-added upstream industries. Given the accelerating trend toward carbon neutrality, demand for its fossil fuels will likely decline.

Yet, while balancing growth and stability, the multiethnic country with an average age of 30 has succeeded in making slow but steady progress toward overcoming the middle-income trap. Its industrial success will certainly serve as a beacon for other emerging and developing countries in the Global South.


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