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Showing posts with label Governments. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Governments. Show all posts

Sunday, August 27, 2017

Corruption has no place in any culture


LATELY, we have been seeing many photographs and a lot of video footage of handcuffed men and women in orange T-shirts bearing the words “Lokap SPRM”.

These are people who have been arrested by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) in connection with its investigations. Lokap SPRM is the Bahasa Malaysia term for the MACC lock-up.

Some of these men and women have been or will be charged in court for offences such as offering or soliciting bribes and abuse of power. If they are guilty, they will be punished.


But what if the wrongdoing is partly to do with how the private sector operates?

If businessmen believe that greasing someone’s palm is an acceptable way to get ahead of the competition, and if a company’s culture tolerates or even encourages corrupt practices, why should the employees be the only ones held accountable when the authorities enforce the law?

It is not easy, however, to prove that a company has criminal intent.

This will matter less if there are provisions in the law that deem companies responsible if employees commit certain offences in the course of their work.

This concept of corporate liability for the crimes of employees has been introduced in countries such as the United States, Britain and Australia.

Malaysia has long talked about introducing such provisions.

In July 2013, for example, Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Datuk Paul Low said the Government wanted to introduce a “corporate liability law”.

The idea is to hold boards of directors and CEOs of companies responsible for bribes given by their employees unless it is proven that there are measures in place within the organisation to prevent corruption.

Since then, Low and senior MACC officers have several times brought up this matter.

It appears that the plan is to either amend the MACC Act or to come up with a fresh piece of legislation.

At one point, Low said the Bill would be tabled by March this year and that the new provisions would come into effect in 2018.

However, the draft legislation has yet to reach Parliament.

The latest update was from MACC deputy chief commissioner (operations) Datuk Azam Baki, who was quoted in a Sin Chew Daily report this week saying that the Cabinet had approved the Bill for the Corporate Liability Act and that it would be tabled in October.

It is understandable if the business community is less than enthusiastic about this.

There is always the fear that an employer will be unfairly blamed for an employee’s lack of integrity.

There is also the well-worn argument that complying with additional rules and regulations will increase costs amid already challenging conditions.

It is likely, however, that the new provisions are applicable only if the companies cannot demonstrate that they have done all they can to prevent the offences, or if they are negligent in addressing the risks of such offences being committed.

We will have to wait and see.

Meanwhile, businesses should examine their practices and procedures.

It is definitely in the best interest of a company to ensure that its employees understand well that corruption is not part of its corporate culture.

For that matter, corruption should not be part of any culture.

- Sunday Star Says

Amend MACC Act to give it more bite


TRANSPARENCY International Malaysia (TI-M) hails the call by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) to amend Section 23 of the MACC Act 2009 to give it greater clarity so that corrupt practices and other related offences could be better tackled especially in state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

As stated by MACC deputy commissioner (Operations) Datuk Azam Baki, MACC needs more bite to act against corrupt public officials including ministers, assemblymen and politicians.

TI-M also supports MACC on the recently proposed new law known as “Misconduct for Civil Service Act”, where civil servants who caused substantial financial losses to the Government due to negligent acts or non-compliance with official policies or procedures would face criminal charges under this proposed new Act.

TI-M has been advocating for these amendments to the existing MACC Act for the past several years and hopes to finally see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Section 23 of the MACC Act 2009 prohibits “an officer of a public body” or public officials from abusing their power for any gratification for themselves or for their relatives. TI-M shares Azam’s opinion that many politicians are being appointed into SOEs and public interest entities (PIEs).

In addition, TI-M is also looking forward to the inclusion of the corporate liability provisions into the MACC Act 2009, which will ultimately hold companies accountable for corruption cases involving their employees.

Currently, when an employee is caught for corruption or bribery, he or she will face the consequences and can be charged individually. The company which the respective employee works for is not held liable for its employees’ acts, as in law the company not being a human person is not capable of having criminal intent.

With the introduction of the corporate liability provisions, companies can be held accountable for their employees’ involvement in corruption or bribery if they are found to have failed to take adequate steps to prevent such corrupt acts by their employees.

When this becomes a reality, employers in the private sector would have no choice but to initiate anti-corruption programmes in their companies/organisations to mitigate and eventually eradicate corrupt practices.

TI-M, meanwhile, has been encouraging companies in the private sector to adopt the ISO 37001 Anti Bribery Management System as an initiative to put in place all the preventive controls and systems while simultaneously getting the top management to commit to the elimination of any form of bribery in their organisations.

On the proposed Misconduct for Civil Service Act, any effort or law to address misconduct which results in loss of taxpayers’ money should be lauded.

However, we would like to raise the issue of whether the proposed law should only apply to civil servants. What about instances where orders or instructions come from politicians or persons in elected positions? Should they not also be held liable if proven to be involved?

Any proposed law should fairly apply to everyone involved in the decision-making process, and that includes politicians.

Azam has been reported saying that each year, the AuditorGeneral’s Report reveals a litany of malpractices among government departments and agencies, some of which are outrageous, for which the civil servants responsible should be charged with criminal offences instead of just disciplinary action under the domestic rules applicable to them.

TI-M supports these new measures proposed by the MACC and hopes that the Government will give due consideration and also fully support the same by effecting the necessary changes in the law. This would ensure that we plug the existing loopholes in our anti-corruption laws.

DATUK AKHBAR SATAR President Transparency International Malaysia


Related Links: 

 

MACC to meet on Sept 4 over CM's refusal to apologise

 

MACC questions ex-MPSP president - Nation 

 

MACC wants more muscle - Nation

 

Lim must apologise, says MACC 

 

MP defends Lim's MACC remarks - Nation

 

MACC's threat of legal action on Guan Eng an unhealthy development

 

Unisel employees pledge support for MACC probe - Nation

 

MACC reaffirms stand to stop graft, urges people to follow suit - Nation

 

Unisel employees pledge support for MACC probe - Nation

 

MACC reaffirms stand to stop graft, urges people to follow suit - Nation

 

We are not harassing Selangor, says MACC chief

 

MACC formulating new law to tackle financial misconduct in the civil service

 

Related posts:


MACC raids Unisel, MBI and contractor's office ... - The Sun Daily MACC officers conducting raids on University Selangor, Shah Al...


GEORGE TOWN: A non-governmental organisation has lodged a report with the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) against two Penang...


Malaysia Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) will call up Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng and  


https://youtu.be/TpHEBW1dEmM https://youtu.be/i28FwI4tlV4 Arrest linked to illegal operation of carbon filter factory i...


More big corrupt officials nabbed: Datuk among those busted for graft & mismanagement 

 

MACC starts probe on Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV)

 

Making the corrupt fear whistleblowers, not the other way ! 

 

The Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) needs strong finishing

 

Reporting an offence is not defamation

Friday, March 14, 2014

US, UK, India among 'Free World' Governments Worst for online spies

WASHINGTON: US' National Security Agency, India's Centre for Development of Telematics, and the UK's GCHQ have been named among the worst online spies by a non-profit group for implementing censorship and surveillance.

Three of the government bodies designated by Reporters Without Borders as 'Enemies of the Internet' are located in democracies that have traditionally claimed to respect fundamental freedoms, a report by the Reporters Without Borders said.

PARIS - Shady agencies at the service of democratically elected governments are among the worst online spies in the world, media watchdog RSF said Wednesda

In the latest instalment of the "Enemies of the Internet" report, wholesale spying by "free world" services -- much of it exposed by US intelligence contractor Edward Snowden --- is offered no distinction from the unabashed surveillance carried out by the world's worst dictatorships. 

To RSF, agencies such as the US National Security Agency, Britain's GCHQ and the Centre for Development Telematics in India embrace the worst methods of snooping in the name of governments that purportedly hold freedom of speech as a national priority. 

They have "hacked into the very heart of the Internet" and turned a collective resource "into a weapon in the service of special interests" that flout the "freedom of information, freedom of expression and the right to privacy". 

"The NSA and GCHQ have spied on the communications of millions of citizens including many journalists," the report by Reporters Sans Frontieres (RSF, Reporters Without Borders) said. 

The methods used, many of which NSA contractor Snowden revealed to the world last year before going into hiding in Russia, "are all the more intolerable" because they are then used by authoritarian countries such as Iran, China, Turkmenistan and Saudi Arabia, the report said. 

Also singled out by RSF are private companies that provide their most up-to-date powers of snooping at trade fairs that have become giant spying bazaars selling the best that technology can offer. 

It is at these shows hosted regularly around the world that profit-driven spy-ware firms link up with government agents or nervous multinationals that are in search of the newest ways to observe and control the Internet. 

RSF argued that the censorship carried out by the Enemies of the Internet "would not be possible without the tools developed by the private sector companies to be found at these trade fairs." 

With these tools, spies can track journalists anywhere in the world, RSF said. 

Governments keen to impose censorship also help one another. 

Iran has asked China to help it develop a local version of the electronic Great Wall that cuts off billions of Chinese from the Internet as seen by the rest of the world. China is active in Africa and central Asia too. 

To stop this proliferation of snooping, RSF said a whole new legal framework to govern surveillance was "essential" with states needing to embrace transparency regarding the methods being used. 

The fight for human rights, it warned, "had spread to the Internet".

Related posts:

1. 2013 the year of Internet innovation
2. You are being snooped on, Malaysia views US-NSA spying seriously!
3.US, Britain spying on virtual world, agents pose as gamers..
4. Educate public on changes in e-technology, CAP urg…
5..USA Spying, the Super-Snooper !
6. NSA secretly hacks, intercepts Google, Yahoo daily…
7. Abusing intelligence is stupid
8. Brazil attacks US over spying issue
9. US Spy Snowden Says U.S. Hacking China Since 2009
10. Upset over US cyber spying! 
11. No privacy on the Net !
12. US building new spy wing to focus on Asia 

Thursday, February 6, 2014

Southeast Asia's Boom Is a Bubble-Driven Illusion?



Since the Global Financial Crisis, Southeast Asia has been one of the world’s few bright spots for economic growth and investment returns. With its relatively young population of 600 million and its growing middle class, Southeast Asia has been the scene of a modern-day gold rush as international companies clamor to get a piece of the action. Unfortunately, my research has found that much of this region’s growth in recent years has been driven by ballooning credit and asset bubbles – a pattern that is also occurring in numerous emerging economies across the globe.

In the past few months, I have published reports about the growing bubbles in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia, and I will use this report to explain the region’s economic bubble as a whole. My five Southeast Asian country reports have generated quite a bit of interest and controversy, and were read nearly 1.3 million times, and were publicly denied by the central banks of Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

Ultra-low interest rates in the U.S., Europe, and Japan, combined with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s $3 trillion-and-counting quantitative easing programs caused a $4 trillion torrent of speculative “hot money” to flow into emerging market investments from 2009 to 2013. A global carry trade arose in which investors borrowed significant sums of capital at low interest rates from the U.S. and Japan for the purpose of purchasing higher-yielding emerging market investments and earning the difference. The surging foreign demand for emerging market investments created bubbles in those assets, especially in bonds. The emerging markets bond bubble resulted in record low borrowing costs for developing nations’ governments and corporations, and helped to inflate dangerous credit and property bubbles across the emerging world.

The flow of hot money into Southeast Asia after the financial crisis caused the region’s currencies to rise strongly against the U.S. dollar, such as the Singapore dollar’s 22 percent increase, the Philippine peso and Malaysian ringgit’s 25 percent increase, the Thai baht and Vietnamese dong’s 30 percent increase, and the Indonesian’s rupiah’s 50 percent increase, which has been subsequently negated now that foreign capital has begun to flow out of Indonesia’s economy.

The post-Crisis bond bubble helped to reduce government bond yields in Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines (click links for charts), while foreign institutional holdings of many Asian sovereign bonds increased dramatically:

Foreign Holdings Of Malaysian Bonds

Foreign direct investment into several Southeast Asian countries - particularly Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia – immediately surged to new highs after the Global Financial Crisis.
Here’s the chart of Singapore’s FDI (net inflows, current dollars):

SingaporeFDI2

Malaysia’s FDI (net inflows, current dollars):

Malaysian Foreign Direct Investment

Indonesia’s FDI (net inflows, current dollars):

Indonesian FDI

How Record Low Interest Rates Are Fueling The Bubble

The emerging markets bond bubble helped to push EM corporate and government borrowing costs to all-time lows, but there is another factor that is causing the inflation of bubbles in Southeast Asia: record low bank loan rates. Large corporations have a choice to borrow from either the bond market or directly from banks, and typically choose the option that provides the lowest borrowing costs.

Western benchmark interest rates – particularly the LIBOR or London Interbank Offered Rate – are used to price bank loans in numerous countries throughout the entire world, and most have been hovering just above zero percent in the five years since the Global Financial Crisis. Most Western economies were hit extremely hard in the financial crisis and have faced a constant threat of falling into a deflationary trap since then, which is why their benchmark interest rates have been at virtually zero. In the U.S. Federal Reserve’s case, it has been running what is known as ZIRP or zero-interest rate policy.

Here is the chart of the LIBOR interest rate:

Libor

Due to the fact that the West was the primary epicenter of the 2003 to 2007 bubble economy and ensuing Global Financial Crisis, emerging market economies were able to rebound more quickly and continue growing at a much greater rate. While many Southeast Asian economies have been growing at a 5 percent or greater annual rate since 2008, they have been able to borrow at record low Western interest rates such as those based on the LIBOR. LIBOR is used as the base rate for nearly two-thirds of all large-scale corporate borrowings in Asia. Western interest rates are too low relative to Southeast Asia’s economic growth and inflation rates, so a large-scale borrowing binge has been occurring as a side-effect. Southeast Asia’s credit bubble may balloon even larger because Western benchmark interest rates are likely to stay at very low levels for several more years.

Local benchmark interest rates in many Southeast Asian countries have hit record lows since 2008 as well. Local interest rates are used for approximately one-third of large-scale corporate loans in Asia, as well as most consumer, mortgage, and smaller business loans. Southeast Asian central banks have kept their benchmark interest rates low to stem export-harming currency appreciation that has resulted from capital inflows since the financial crisis.

The chart below is Singapore’s benchmark interest rate, or SIBOR, which is commonly used as a reference rate for loans throughout Southeast Asia:

singapore-interbank-rate

Here is Malaysia’s bank lending rate chart:
malaysia-bank-lending-rate

The Philippines’ bank lending rate:
philippines-bank-lending-rate

Indonesia’s benchmark interest rate:
Indonesia's Benchmark Interest Rate
Thailand's benchmark interest rate:
thailand-interest-rate

Southeast Asia’s Boom Is Driven By A Credit Bubble

Abnormally cheap credit conditions have led to the inflation of credit bubbles across Southeast Asia, which have been a significant driver of the region’s economic growth in recent years.

Singapore’s total outstanding private sector loans have soared by 133 percent since 2010:


singapore-loans-to-private-sector

Malaysia’s private sector loans have increased by over 80 percent since 2008:
Malaysia Loans to Private Sector

The Philippines’ M3 money supply, a broad measure of total money and credit in the economy, has more than doubled since 2008, and sharply accelerated in 2013 as interest rates hit new lows:
Philippines M3 Money Supply

Indonesia’s private sector loans have risen by nearly 50 percent in the past two years:
indonesia-loans-to-private-sector

Thailand’s private sector loans have risen by over 50 percent since the start of 2010:
Thailand Loans To Private Sector

Though dangerous credit bubbles are inflating across Southeast Asia, some countries’ credit bubbles are driven primarily by consumer or household debt, while others are driven mainly by commercial sector borrowing, particularly for construction and property development. Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand’s credit bubbles have a significant household debt component as the chart below shows:
BWNLMLjCQAAdNZ-9


Singapore’s household debt-to-GDP ratio recently hit nearly 75 percent, which is up from 55 percent in 2010 and 45 percent in 2005. Though Singapore’s total outstanding household debt has increased by 41 percent since 2010, the city-state’s household income and wages have increased by a mere 25 percent and 15 percent respectively.

Malaysia now has Southeast Asia’s highest household debt load after its household debt-to-GDP ratio hit a record 83 percent, which is up from 70 percent in 2009, and up from just 39 percent at the start of the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. Malaysian household debt has grown by approximately 12 percent annually each year since 2008.

Thailand’s household debt-to-GDP ratio also hit a recent record of 77 percent, which is up from 55 percent in 2008, and just 45 percent a decade ago. Total lending to Thai households increased at a 17 percent annual rate from 2010 to 2012, while household credit provided by credit card, leasing and personal loan companies rose at an alarming 27 percent annual rate.

Property Bubbles Are Ballooning Across Southeast Asia 

Ultra-low interest rates in Southeast Asia have helped to inflate property bubbles throughout the region, which has also contributed to the staggering rise in household debt.

Singapore’s mortgage rates are based upon the SIBOR rate discussed earlier, which has been held at under one percent for over five years. Singapore’s property prices have roughly doubled since 2004, and are up by 60 percent since 2009 alone:

Singapore-Housing-Bubble
Source: GlobalPropertyGuide.com 

The average price of a new 1,000-square-foot condo has risen to $1 million to $1.2 million Singapore dollars ($799,000 to $965,638 U.S.), making the city-state the world’s third most expensive residential property market behind Canada and Hong Kong. A 2013 study by The Economist magazine showed that Singapore’s residential property prices are 57 percent overvalued based on its historic price-to-rent ratio. Singapore now ranks as one of the world’s ten most expensive cities to live.

Economic bubbles and the resulting false prosperity in other Asian countries have spilled over into Singapore as investors from across the region clamor to buy properties there. In 2013, 34 percent of foreign property-buyers in Singapore were from China, 32 percent were from Indonesia, and 13 percent were from Malaysia.

Total outstanding mortgages increased by 18 percent each year over the last three years, bringing total mortgage loans to 46 percent of Singapore’s GDP from 35 percent. Almost a third of Singapore’s mortgages are utilized for speculative property purchases rather than owner occupation. Singapore’s mortgage loan bubble is one of the primary reasons why the country’s household debt has been increasing at such a high rate in recent years.

Malaysian property prices have been increasing parabolically in recent years, as the chart below shows. Mortgage loans account for nearly half of all Malaysia’s household debt, and its rapid increase is the primary driver of the country’s household debt bubble.

Malaysia Property Bubble Chart


Prices have nearly doubled in the past decade in certain Philippine property markets, such as the Makati Central Business District (CBD):

Philippines Property Bubble

In the first six months of 2013, the average price of a 3-bedroom luxury condominium in Makati CBD rose by a frothy 12.92 percent (9.98 percent inflation-adjusted), after rising 5.6 percent in Q1 2013, 8 percent in Q4 and 8.3 percent in Q3 2012. The average price of a premium 3-bedroom condominium in Bonifacio Global City surged by 12.4 percent y-o-y, while secondary residential property prices in Rockwell Center rose by 10.6 percent y-o-y. Philippine outstanding mortgage loans are rising at an even faster rate than consumer credit, such as a 42 percent increase in 2012. The Philippines’ construction sector is expected to expand by double digits in 2014 and account for nearly half of economic growth thanks in large part to the country’s property development boom.

Though Indonesian property market data is spotty and difficult to source for all markets, Jakarta and Bali property prices are becoming frothy, especially at the higher end of the market. Jakarta condominium prices rose between 11 and 17 percent on average between the first half of 2012 and 2013, after rising by more than 50 percent since late 2008. Luxury real estate prices in Jakarta soared by 38 percent in 2012, while luxury properties in Bali rose by 20 percent – the strongest price increases of all global luxury housing markets.  A small two-room apartment on the outskirts of Jakarta can cost nearly $80,000 USD (RM253,373), making housing unaffordable for many ordinary Indonesians. From June 2012 to May 2013, outstanding loans for apartment purchases nearly doubled from IDR 6.56 trillion (USD $659.3 million) to IDR 11.42 trillion (USD $1.15 billion).

Thailand’s property bubble is centered primarily in the condo market, which is the most common type of dwelling for Bangkok residents, and is the speculative vehicle of choice for foreign investors who typically hail from Singapore and Hong Kong. According to Bank of Thailand, condo prices soared by 9.39 percent, while townhouses prices rose by 6.86 percent in Q1 2013, after rising by similar amounts for the past several years. The majority of new mortgages originated are concentrated at the lower end of the Thai housing market, and Bank of Thailand warned that low interest rate home loans could cause a property bubble.

Boonchai Bencharongkul, a wealthy Thai industrialist, said “I think the current situation is worrisome. As one of those who had such an experience, I can smell it now. People are rushing and competing to buy condos while more and more people are driving Ferraris. These are the same things we saw before the 1997 crisis occurred.”

Construction Bubbles Abound Across Southeast Asia

Low interest rates and soaring property prices create the perfect conditions for construction bubbles, which is what occurred in Ireland, Spain, the United States, and other countries from 2003 to 2007, and what has been occurring throughout Southeast Asia in recent years. Construction is a capital-intensive economic activity that benefits from cheap and easy credit, which is certainly the case in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia’s construction boom has been focused on condominium and residential property development, hotels, resorts, casinos, malls, airports, infrastructure projects, and skyscrapers.

Construction has been the most significant contributor to Singapore’s economic growth since 2008, as the chart below shows:

Singapore Construction Bubble

Construction industry work permits rose to 306,500 in June 2013 from 180,000 at the end-2007, which was the peak of Singapore’s economic boom before the financial crisis hit. Singapore’s construction boom has been driving an over 18 percent annual increase in total outstanding building and construction loans in recent years. Bank loans for building and construction, and mortgages recently rose to 79 percent of Singapore’s GDP, which is up from 62 percent in 2010.

Casino and resort construction has become a strong driver of building activity ever since gambling became legal in Singapore in 2010. The Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa opened in 2010 at a cost of over $10 billion. Singapore has also been aggressively upgrading and expanding its Changi International Airport, which has been a driver of construction activity. There is so much construction activity in Singapore that the country has 306,500 construction workers (compared to its 5.3 million population) from other Asian countries living there on work permits.

After growing by over 20 percent in 2012, Malaysia’s construction spending was expected to rise by 13 percent in 2013. Malaysia’s plan to build the tallest building in Southeast Asia, the 118-story Warisan Merdeka Tower, are a major red flag according to the Skyscraper Index, which posits that ambitious skyscraper projects are a common hallmark of economic bubbles.

In the Philippines, casinos, condominiums, and shopping malls have been driving construction activity. The Philippines now hosts 9 of the world’s 38 largest malls – beating even the U.S., China, and most other developed countries. The Philippines’ construction sector is expected to expand by double digits in 2014, and account for nearly half of the country’s economic growth.

Indonesia has been experiencing a construction boom in every sector, including hotels, condominiums, infrastructure, airports, and government buildings. At least 61 new hotels are confirmed to open in Jakarta by 2015. Indonesian construction contracts were estimated at more than $40 billion in 2013, up from $32.4 billion in 2012.

Thailand’s construction boom has been centered upon condominium development and infrastructure projects, which are funded by the government’s deficit spending. Construction spending is expected to grow by nearly 7 percent annually for the next five years.

Governments Are Borrowing To Create Economic Growth

The governments of Thailand and Malaysia have been taking advantage of low borrowing costs – courtesy of the emerging markets bond bubble – to finance deficit spending for the purpose of boosting economic growth.

Since 2010, Malaysia’s public debt-to-GDP ratio has been at all time highs of over 50 percent due to large fiscal deficits that were incurred when an aggressive stimulus package was launched to boost the country’s economy during the Global Financial Crisis. Malaysia now has the second highest public debt-to-GDP ratio among 13 emerging Asian countries according to a Bloomberg study. Malaysia’s high public debt burden led to a sovereign credit rating outlook downgrade by Fitch in July.

Malaysia Government Debt to GDP Malaysia’s Malaysia's government has been running a budget deficit since 1999:
Malaysia Government Budget Deficit

Thailand’s government spending ramped up significantly in 2012 after the launch of a $2.5 billion first car tax rebate program that was fraught with problems as well as an unsuccessful rice subsidy scheme that lost the government 136 billion baht or $4.4 billion even though it was promoted as cost-neutral. Thailand’s government also plans to spend 2 trillion baht ($64 billion) – nearly one-fifth of the country’s GDP – by 2020 on growth-driving infrastructure projects, including a network of high-speed railway lines to connect the country’s four main regions with Bangkok. The interest alone on this new debt will cost another 3 trillion baht over the next five decades.

Thailand’s government spending is up by nearly 40 percent since 2008:
Thailand Government Spending
The country’s government has been running a budget deficit since 2008 to support its spending:

Thailand Government Budget Deficit

A wealthy Thai industrialist, Boonchai Bencharongkul, warned against excessive government spending, saying “This time, the nature of the crisis might be different. Last time it was the private sector that went bankrupt, but this time we might see the government collapse.” Sawasdi Horrungruang, founder of NTS Steel Group, cautioned that Thailand’s government should not borrow beyond its ability to service its debt, which will eventually become the burden of taxpayers.

How Singapore’s Financial Sector Is Driving The Bubble

Singapore has grown to become Southeast Asia’s banking and financial center, and the region’s rise – and inflating economic bubble – in recent years has helped the city-state to earn the nickname “The Switzerland of Asia.” Singapore’s financial sector is now six times larger than its economy, with local and foreign banks holding assets worth S$2.1 trillion (US$1.7 trillion). The Singaporean financial sector’s assets under management (AUM) have increased at a 9 percent annual rate from 2007 to 2012, but surged 22 percent in 2012. The primary reason for the country’s rapid AUM growth is its growing role as a banking hub in Southeast Asia, and it has been riding the coattails of the region’s economic bubble. A full 70 percent of assets managed in Singapore were invested in Asia in 2013, which is up from 60 percent in 2012. Singapore’s financial services industry grew 163% between 2008 and 2012.

Singapore’s banks have been contributing to the inflation of Southeast Asia’s economic bubble due to their use of the abnormally-low SIBOR as a reference rate for loans made throughout the region.

Here is the chart of the SIBOR interest rate as a reminder of how low it has been for the past half-decade:

singapore-interbank-rate

To learn more about Singapore’s financial sector and its role in inflating Southeast Asia’s economic bubble, please read this section of my detailed report about Singapore’s bubble economy.

How China Is Driving Southeast Asia’s Bubble

Economic bubbles are not confined to Southeast Asia, unfortunately; since 2008, China’s economy has devolved into a massive economic bubble that has been contributing to Southeast Asia’s bubble.
Here are a few statistics that show how large China’s bubble has become:
  • China’s total domestic credit more than doubled to $23 trillion from $9 trillion in 2008, which is equivalent to adding the entire U.S. commercial banking sector.
  • Borrowing has risen as a share of China’s national income to more than 200 percent, from 135 percent in 2008.
  • China’s credit growth rate is now faster than Japan’s before its 1990 bust and America’s before 2008, with half of that growth in the shadow-banking sector.
As mentioned at the beginning of this report, China’s government has encouraged the construction of countless cities and infrastructure projects to generate economic growth. Many of China’s cities, malls, and other buildings are still completely empty and unused even years after their completion, as these eerie, must-see satellite images show.

China has a classic property bubble that has resulted in soaring property prices in the past several years. A recent report showed that property prices increased 20 percent in Guangzhou and Shenzhen from a year earlier, and jumped 18 percent in Shanghai and 16 percent in Beijing.

China’s inflating economic bubble has generated an incredible amount wealth (albeit much of it temporary), a portion of which has flowed into Southeast Asia. Wealthy Chinese have been buying condominiums in desirable locations across Southeast Asia, and its notoriously free-spending gamblers are the primary reason for the casino building boom in numerous Southeast Asian countries, particularly in Singapore and the Philippines. Chinese companies have been investing and lending heavily in Southeast Asia, with a strong focus on the natural resources sector.

From 2002 to 2012, China’s bilateral trade with Southeast Asia increased 23.6 percent annually, and China is now Southeast Asia’s largest trade partner, while Southeast Asia is China’s third-largest trade partner.

Though several lengthy books can be written about China’s rise, economic bubble, and how it affects Southeast Asia, my goal is to succinctly show how dangerous China’s economic bubble has become and emphasize the fact that Southeast Asia’s economy has been benefiting from China’s false prosperity. The eventual popping of China’s bubble will send a devastating shockwave throughout Southeast Asia’s economy, which will contribute to the ending of the region’s bubble economy.

The Role Of Southeast Asia’s Frontier Economies

This report has focused primarily on the larger, more developed Southeast Asian countries because they have a far greater influence on the region’s economy compared to the “frontier” economies of Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Burma (Myanmar). The five largest Southeast Asian economies also have more advanced financial markets that are better integrated with global financial markets, and thus pose a greater systemic financial risk than the region’s frontier economies.

Southeast Asia’s frontier economies have been growing rapidly in recent years for many of the same reasons as their more developed neighbors, including:
  • Rising trade with China
  • Rising Chinese investment
  • Increasing intraregional trade
  • Loose global monetary conditions and “hot money”
  • Higher commodities prices
  • Credit and property bubbles
Vietnam experienced a property and credit bubble that popped several years ago and saddled the country’s banking system with bad loans. International realty firm CB Richard Ellis warned last year that Phnom Penh, Cambodia was experiencing a property bubble. Some local observers have suspected that property prices in Vientiane, Laos were in a bubble. Property prices in Yangon, Burma have exploded higher in recent years making commercial rents more expensive than in Manhattan.

While relevant data is few and far between, it is not unreasonable to believe that Southeast Asia’s frontier economies are experiencing froth or bubbles of their own for the same reasons as larger economies in the region. Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Burma are dangerously exposed to the eventual popping of China’s economic bubble as well as the popping of Southeast Asia’s overall bubble.

Cracks Are Beginning To Show

Southeast Asia’s financial markets were strong performers in late-2012 and early-2013 until news of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s QE taper plans surfaced in the Spring of 2013, causing many of these markets to fall sharply due to fears of reduced stimulus. This rout did not come as a surprise to me as I had been warning that hot money flows were inflating asset bubbles in emerging market countries, and I even published a report titled “All The Money We’re Pouring Into Emerging Markets Has Created A Massive Bubble” just a few months before these markets plunged. The sensitivity of emerging market asset prices and currencies to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s stimulus programs was an additional confirmation that the emerging markets bubble owed its existence largely to hot money flows. The ultimate ending of the Fed’s current “ QE3″ program – which many economists expect this year – is likely to put further pressure on emerging markets and contribute to the popping of their bubbles.

While most of Southeast Asia’s financial markets and currencies have been treading water since last Spring’s taper panic, Indonesia’s situation has continued to deteriorate, causing the rupiah currency to significantly weaken due to capital outflows. The rupiah is down by nearly 50 percent from its 2011 peak. Indonesia was hit harder by the taper panic than other Southeast Asian countries because of its worsening trade and current account deficits.

Thailand has been embroiled in political turmoil in recent months as opposition protestors have been demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. Opposition members claim that Yingluck is carrying on the same corrupt practices as her billionaire brother, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a military coup in 2006. The protests have harmed Thailand’s tourism industry, which is expected to slow 2014 economic growth to half of what it would have been without the demonstrations. Thailand’s stock market has fallen sharply in recent months as a result of the political strife.

How Southeast Asia’s Bubble Will Pop

Southeast Asia’s economic bubble will most likely pop when the bubbles in China and emerging markets pop and as global and local interest rates eventually rise, which are what inflated the region’s credit and asset bubbles in the first place. Southeast Asia’s bubble economy may continue to inflate for several more years if the U.S. Fed Funds Rate, LIBOR, and SIBOR continue to be held at such low levels.

I expect the ultimate popping of the emerging markets bubble to cause another crisis that is similar (though not identical in every technical sense) to the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, and there is a strong chance that it will be even worse this time due to the fact that more countries are involved (Latin America, China, and Africa), and because the global economy is in a much weaker state now than it was during the booming late-1990s.

I recommend taking the time to read my detailed reports on Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia to get a better understanding of Southeast Asia’s economic bubble.

In the coming months, I will be publishing more reports about bubbles that are developing around the entire world – most of which you probably never knew existed. Please follow me on Twitter, Google+ and like my Facebook page to keep up with the latest economic bubble news and my related commentary.

Jesse Colombo By Jesse Colombo, Forbes Contributor
I'm an economic analyst who is warning of dangerous post-2009 bubbles

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1. Asian central banks fix the mess created by their governments 

Asian central banks fix the mess created by their governments


Tokyo: Asia's central bankers are being forced to juggle their day jobs with what their governments have failed to do - steeling their economies for the hard times.

Critics say many governments have done too little to remove barriers to domestic and foreign business investment, cut red tape, upgrade infrastructure and develop deep, well-functioning financial markets when the region was flush with cheap money.

Now that economic rocks are emerging as the tide of the Fed's easy cash recedes, central banks are having to step in, detouring from their price and financial stability mandates, to shore up weak economies.

India and Indonesia were first in the firing line of investors last year when the Fed's plans to scale back its $85 billion in monthly cash injections started to take shape. Both took emergency steps, intervened in markets and raised interest rates to shore up battered currencies.

Since then the Fed has started winding down its stimulus in earnest, putting emerging markets on the back foot once again as investors look to target the most vulnerable economies.

Indonesian and Indian authorities have improved their defences against rapid outflows but their governments have failed to tackle supply bottlenecks and market rigidities that fuel inflation and limit room for policy manoeuvre, economists say. Both face national elections this year that could lead to populist measures and further delay reforms.

In Thailand, months of political turmoil have paralysed government, leaving the central bank as the mainstay of economic support.

"Government and monetary policies should be fairly balanced," says Rob Subbaraman, chief Asia economist at Nomura in Singapore.

"In India, and increasingly Thailand, the governments have not done their part. There's a risk Indonesia goes this way as the elections draw closer," said Subbaraman, who since mid-2013 has been warning of emerging Asia's growing exposure to market turmoil.

Even in Japan and China, with their strong and stable political leaderships, central banks appear to be doing most of heavy lifting.

In Japan, a blast of central bank money has boosted the economy and markets, but Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic reforms have disappointed.

China's central bank is trying to rein in an explosion of off-balance sheet and risky lending as cautious government regulators resist speedier financial reform that would force markets to price risk more realistically.

Asian central bankers rarely air their frustrations in public. India's former central bank governor Duvvuri Subbarao was an exception, regularly sparring with New Delhi over economic reforms and rates.

Sometimes though, their concerns do bubble to the surface.

After a series of rate hikes by Indonesia's central bank, an official there in October voiced his vexation that the government was not tackling the root cause of a widening trade and current account gap - its own spending.

"We need to address the cause of illness when running a fever," Dody Budi Waluyo, executive director of Bank Indonesia economic and monetary policy department told Reuters at the time. "The medicine should not only be Panadol to lower the fever."

NEW RISKS

In picking up the reins from government, the risk is that central banks will deliver neither the stability they seek, nor the economic support that is needed.

In Japan, for example, the concern is that optimism spurred by the Bank of Japan's massive cash injections will fade without reforms to unshackle the economy's untapped growth potential and help overcome the problems of a fast ageing society.

The Chinese central bank's attempts to curb risky lending by calibrating supply of money market funds have triggered repeated cash crunches that threaten to ignite market panic.

Indonesian and Indian central banks may be forced to tighten monetary policy more than their slowing economies would otherwise have warranted because of fragile market sentiment and sticky inflation that remains high even when growth cools.

In an ominous sign for India, foreign investors have been net sellers of the country's stocks this year.

Thailand's central bank is under pressure to fill the void left by stalled infrastructure spending and provide the struggling economy with stimulus, but is well aware of the risks.

"Maintaining monetary policy in an accommodative mode for a long period of time runs the risk of delays in reforms as they may seem less pressing and the risk of financial imbalances build up," Bank of Thailand spokeswoman Roong Mallikamas said.

In Japan, one concern is that without fundamental reforms promised as part of Abe's "Abenomics" revival plan, markets will reverse and Japan lurch back into its deflationary equilibrium or "stagflation" - a spell of tepid growth and rising prices. Japan Risk Forum, which groups risk managers from Japan's major financial institutions, sees nearly a 50-50 chance of that happening.

"We cannot rely solely on monetary policy forever and the time will come when the government's resolve will be tested by markets, likely around summer," said Hiroshi Watanabe, head of state-run lender JBIC and Japan's former top financial diplomat.

OWN MAKING

To be fair, central bankers may have contributed to their own predicament by keeping monetary policies too loose for too long after the global financial crisis, either because of political pressure or fear of more turmoil.

Nomura estimates that taken as a whole, real interest rates measured as a difference between official rates and inflation in Asia's 10 biggest economies excluding Japan were negative for more than half the time since 2008 - a recipe for rapid debt buildup and property and stock market bubbles. By contrast rates were negative for only 16 percent of the 1996-2007 period.

"By over accommodating the Fed's easing, central banks allowed asset price inflation to occur, causing an intoxicating party in full swing," said Thirachai Phuvanatnaranubala, former Thai finance minister and deputy central bank governor. "With tapering, the party is over. Some emerging markets will now have to deal with the bubbles that crept up while everybody dreamily enjoyed himself."

There are also some signs of change. India is embarking on an ambitious monetary policy overhaul that would make it harder for the government to lean on the central bank, while the government has curbed gold imports and secured $34 billion in overseas financing to try to close its current account deficit.

Indonesia's ban on ore exports drew fire, but it is a sign Jakarta at least recognises the need to reduce its reliance on raw commodities exports. It has also taken steps to shore up public finances.

Still, central bank efforts can easily unravel once elections are in motion, said Toru Nishihama, senior emerging markets economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo.

"As elections are looming in many emerging countries this year, no matter how central banks tighten policy to control inflation, their governments are tempted to loosen fiscal policy, offsetting central banks' efforts," Nishihama said.

Sources: Reuters

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Saturday, December 21, 2013

2013 the year of Internet innovation


As the year comes to a close, we need to reflect on what are the most important things that have affected our lives in 2013.

The Internet continues to transform our world. The most significant Internet event in 2013 was not the listing of Facebook, which priced the company at $104 billion (almost Bt3.4 trillion), but Edward Snowden's July revelations of Internet surveillance, which revealed that Big Brother, friend or foe, is really watching. Since my smartphone is smart enough to track me even in the toilet, there is really no privacy left in this world.

On the plus side, Singles Day - November 11 - garnered 35 billion yuan (Bt187 billion) in online sales on one day in China. Since China already accounts for one-third of the smartphones in the world, and they can make and sell smartphones at one-third the price of Apple or Samsung, it is not surprising that e-commerce in the Middle Kingdom is set to overtake even the US in volume next year.

Online business is here to stay.

What the combination of the Internet and smartphone means is that a person in the remotest part of Indonesia can sell his or her product to buyers worldwide, and collect over the smartphone, which was impossible to imagine even 20 years ago.

Amazing also are the apps downloaded in their millions to maximise personal efficiency. Ease of personal communication, meanwhile, has been taken to a new level with apps like WeChat. Such free Internet services are rising so fast that even revenue from SMS text messages is slowing down.

On the other side, after Snowden, what must consider the proper role of the government in the Internet and how it should behave to encourage Web innovation and growth?

Nobel Laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz was one of the first to tackle the subject, in "The Role of Government in a Digital Age" (2000), with Peter and Jonathan Orzag. Their report recommended 12 principles. The first three cover the state's proper role in the affairs of the Internet:

1. Provide public data and information.

2. Improve efficient government services.

3. Support basic research.

The next six principles are areas where the government should exercise caution. These include:

4. Adding specialised value to public data and information.

5. Providing private goods only under limited circumstances.

6. Providing services online where private services are more efficient.

7. Ensuring that mechanisms exist to protect privacy, security, and consumer protection online.

8. Promoting network externalities only with great deliberation and care.

9. Maintaining proprietary information or exercising rights under patents or copyright.

The report also signalled "red light" areas of state intervention in the Internet:

10. Governments should exercise substantial caution in entering markets in which private sector firms are active

11. Governments (including government corporations) should generally not aim to maximise net revenues or take action that would reduce competition.

12. Government should only be allowed to provide goods or services for which appropriate privacy and conflict-of-interest protections have been erected.

The Stiglitz-Orzag report was written for the US market, but the general principles are useful guides for all states. The trouble is that Snowden showed that the US government might have failed to follow some of these guidelines. We do know that governments are becoming increasingly intrusive on the Internet, and that such intrusion inhibits competition and innovation.

Because the Internet is evolving very fast, the role of government in Web affairs also needs to evolve. Businesses are becoming even more service and information-oriented, with increasing numbers going digital and in the "Cloud". This means that governments are struggling with three major issues: protecting private privacy, ensuring a level playing field in competition, and taxing online activities.

Governments must also sort out jurisdictional duties and powers, because the Cloud is global, and taxation and regulation is not only national, but departmental. It is as if each small part of the bureaucracy is trying to regulate the whole Cloud. We can all touch and feel its power, but there is no overall central authority that can control the Cloud.

An island nation in the Pacific might pass a law on the Cloud, but could it enforce it?

Individual privacy is being threatened by the practice of hacking, and the biggest hackers are not bedroom-bound nerds, but governments everywhere.

The second problem of a level playing field is a serious one. If Google has maps and can monitor everything I do through my smartphone, does that information belong to Google or to me? If it belongs to the large platforms, does that not confer a huge informational advantage on them? How can governments ensure that there is a level playing field between these massive online platforms and the small businesses that have no such information or may have to pay the platform for it?

The third area is taxation. Online commerce has escaped the tax radar because it is new. In contrast, bricks-and-mortar shops have rents, create jobs and pay value-added taxes. If everything moves online, the government loses the ability to tax, and bricks-and-mortar retail shops will complain they are losing out to larger and larger platforms. Bookshops around the world are closing in droves now that everyone can order through Amazon.

There are no easy answers to these tough questions. The interdependent and interconnected nature of the Internet means that regulatory or government action in one part may affect the system as a whole. In other words, government action or non-action creates a shadow system - the business moves offline, offshore or into cyberspace.

What we need is better transparency, better education, wider access and also some key principles of fair competition that should be enforced for online business to innovate.

Finally, a year-end reminder: use your smartphone in the toilet, and someone (not Snowden) can hear you flush. Merry Xmas and Happy New Year to all.

Contributed by Andrew Sheng, President of the Fung Global Institute.

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